In the world of international relations, foreign policy often transcends beyond the realms of global diplomacy, spilling over into the domestic arena. A striking example of this phenomenon can be observed in the recent manoeuvres of the Austrian government. Embracing a principle best summarised as "never pass up an opportunity to use foreign policy as a prop in domestic theatre," Austria has made a calculated move in the European political landscape.

The Austrian government's decision to veto Romania and Bulgaria's accession to the Schengen area is a testament to this strategy. This move is a mere foreign policy decision and a carefully orchestrated act in Austria's domestic theatre. By blocking the entry of these two nations into the Schengen zone, Austria sends a clear message to its domestic audience, addressing concerns that resonate with the national sentiment.

The Decline of Austria's People's Party

The Crisis of the ÖVP

In the picturesque landscape of Austrian politics, a storm has been brewing, shaking the foundations of the once-dominant People's Party (ÖVP). The saga began with the 2019 snap election, a response to the notorious Ibiza scandal. Leading the ÖVP, Sebastian Kurz secured a decisive victory, turning away from their controversial coalition with the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) and instead aligning with the Greens. This election, however, marked the peak of the ÖVP's influence, foreshadowing a tumultuous descent.

The Unraveling of a Political Titan

The triumph was short-lived as senior figures in the ÖVP, including Kurz himself, were engulfed in the aftershocks of the Ibiza scandal, plagued by corruption investigations. The once-celebrated Kurz resigned in October 2021, leaving politics two months later, symbolising a party in crisis. His successor, Karl Nehammer, previously the interior minister, became chancellor and party leader. Nehammer, known for his conciliatory approach, differed from Kurz's leadership style but was trapped in the same web of party in-fighting and declining public trust.

A Party in Peril

Under Nehammer's stewardship, the ÖVP's fortunes have dwindled. The corruption scandals have painted a picture of a party riddled with structural decay, an image Nehammer seems unable to repair. This internal decay, compounded by mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic, energy crises, and soaring inflation, has significantly eroded the party's credibility. Polls now predict a staggering decline in the ÖVP's vote share, potentially plummeting from 37.5% to 20%.

Immigration and Political Maneuvering

Amidst this political chaos, the issue of illegal migration has resurfaced in the public discourse. With over 100,000 asylum claims filed in Austria in 2022, surpassing even the numbers seen during the 2015 migrant crisis, Nehammer faced a new challenge. In a strategic move reminiscent of Kurz's 2017 tactics, he focused on the right-wing narrative to counter the rising influence of the FPÖ. This manoeuvre highlights the ÖVP's attempt to reclaim it is eroding base, especially as state elections in Lower Austria loomed.

The Battle for Lower Austria

Lower Austria, a traditional stronghold of the ÖVP, has become the epicentre of this political struggle. As state elections approach, the ÖVP braces for potential losses, including its absolute majority in state legislatures. Nehammer's leadership is mainly at stake, as his authority is heavily reliant on the support from this region. A poor showing in these elections could spell disaster for him and the party, marking a significant shift in Austrian politics.

Austria's Initial Stance: The Provocative Veto

Austria's response, orchestrated by the ÖVP under the leadership of Chancellor Nehammer and Interior Minister Gerald Karner, was to exercise a veto against the Schengen accession of all three nations. This decision was ostensibly based on the high number of asylum applications, a presumed indicator of inadequate border controls. 

Notably, this announcement was made through media channels, a strategy reminiscent of the tactics used by former Chancellor Kurz, rather than through EU or bilateral discussions. This approach heightened the drama and signalled a hardline stance on immigration and border security.

A Strategic Pivot: Croatia's Acceptance

However, the narrative unexpectedly turned when Nehammer reversed his position regarding Croatia. This change of heart coincided with his visit to the LNG terminal on Krk Island alongside Bavarian Premier Markus Söder and Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic. 

During this visit, Nehammer received assurances about expanding the Adria pipeline, which is crucial for reducing Austrian and Bavarian dependence on Russian gas. 

This diplomatic exchange, coupled with pressures from the Austrian Chamber of Commerce (WKO) and threats of blocking Austrian investments in Croatia, illustrates the multifaceted nature of international politics, where economic interests and political alliances often dictate policy decisions.

Romania and Bulgaria: The Continued Resistance

In contrast, Austria's position on Romania and Bulgaria remained unyielding. Despite Frontex's assessment that these countries met the technical criteria for Schengen membership, the Austrian Interior Ministry (BMI) cited its study – not publicly available – claiming a high percentage of illegal entries into Austria via these countries. 

This contradiction with Frontex data suggests a more profound, perhaps politically motivated, reluctance to accept Romania and Bulgaria into the Schengen fold. The WKO's lobbying efforts and Romanian MEP Eugen Tomac's attempts to influence Nehammer proved futile, further underscoring the ÖVP's firm stance.

The Future: A Question of Time or Intransigence?

While the Austrian chancellery hinted at a potential future acceptance of Romania and Bulgaria into Schengen, subject to satisfaction with their border controls, sources within these countries still need to be more pessimistic. This scepticism is rooted in concerns that Austria's rigid position might inflict lasting damage on its interests in these nations. The palpable frustration is evident, with the Romanian interior minister expressing disbelief at Austria's about-face and calls for compensation due to the economic impact of delayed Schengen membership.

Austrian Regional Influence in Decline: A Critical Analysis

Austria's standing in Central-Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) is facing a significant downturn, evidenced by the latest developments that have sparked concerns across the European Union (EU). The situation, bordering on a comedy of errors, has profound implications, not just for the 26 million EU citizens directly impacted but also for Austria's long-cultivated soft power in the region.

Historically, Austria has played a pivotal role in integrating CESEE into the EU, particularly noticeable since the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989. Though seemingly altruistic, this strategy was deeply rooted in Austria's economic interests. Austrian investors reaped the benefits of being first movers in new markets while its economy enjoyed the influx of inexpensive labour. In this process, Vienna reinvented itself as a de facto capital of the region, a status it cherished and nurtured.

Despite these economic motivations, Austria was a reliable ally to the states in the region. However, there's a growing realisation within political circles that Austria might have overestimated its geopolitical influence. The current policies of the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP), tolerated by the Greens and intermittently supported by the opposition Social Democrats (SPÖ), are eroding this hard-earned reputation. The ÖVP's overtly political manoeuvres reflect a troubling departure from its historical role in the region.

While disregarding others, the government's selective accommodation of particular EU member states has exposed a cynical and untrustworthy side of Austrian diplomacy. A notable example is the shift in stance towards Croatian EU membership following a strategic response from Zagreb. The ÖVP's continued engagement with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, despite Hungary being a weak link in the EU's migration strategy, is particularly concerning. Hungary's policies towards asylum seekers and its tendency to allow them passage to Austria have not gone unnoticed in Romania and Bulgaria.

This approach has significant implications for Austrian businesses, especially in Romania, a major destination for Austrian foreign investment. As a deflated Austrian delegate revealed off the record, these political decisions are set to complicate matters for Austrian economic interests, not just in Romania but across the region. This is also an ominous sign for the Western Balkans, where Austria still holds substantial influence.

The ÖVP's strategy, or lack thereof, signifies a 'brain death' within the party, a decline that has been in motion for approximately two decades. The era of transformative leadership within the ÖVP seems to have ended, giving way to a generation of careerist party officials. The party, once a bastion of pro-European sentiment in Austria, has drifted away from its foundational ideals, as evidenced by its stance on EU treaty changes and snap elections in 2008.

The Austrian opposition to the Schengen membership of Romania and Bulgaria is a stark reminder of the growing parochialism within Austrian politics. This insular political culture, increasingly evident, threatens to spill over and impact the broader regional dynamics.

FAQs

Is Austria likely to support Romania's entry into the Schengen Area soon?

Austria seems hesitant to support Romania's entry into the Schengen Area. The Austrian Minister of the Interior, Gerhard Karner, has recently expressed concerns about the functionality of the Schengen system, indicating a reluctance to expand it. This stance comes despite Austria's approval of Croatia's accession to the Schengen Area not long ago. There appears to be a nuanced approach in Austria's decisions regarding Schengen expansion, influenced by various political and strategic considerations.

How consistent is Austria's policy regarding Schengen expansion?

Austria's approach to Schengen expansion may seem inconsistent, especially considering their recent approval of Croatia's entry into the area. Some critics have pointed out what they perceive as a contradiction in Austria's stance, questioning if national interests play a role in these decisions.

What is the general perception of Austrian politicians in this context?

The current Austrian government, led by Chancellor Nehammer, faces criticism from some quarters for its policies and stance on issues like Russian relations and the Schengen expansion. Critics often accuse Austrian politicians of hypocrisy and self-interest, especially concerning their approach to Russian oligarchs and alleged espionage activities. These criticisms reflect a broader scepticism about the integrity and motivations of Austrian political figures.